Free Forex Signal

The Initial Jobless Claims ( Actual 407Kvs Forecast 365K ) and the big Non-Farm Payrolls ( Actual -80Kvs Forecast -50K ) came out much worse than the market expected , while the ADP Employment Change was better than expected ( Actual 8K vs Forecast -30K ). Interestingly the big NFP had a less impact on the USD than we expected. The EUR/USD shows a strong resistance at 1.5750 region, while the USD/JPY moved backward just below the 102.00 region ( a niec support is seen at 101.60 ). However, as far as we consider an outlook for the U.S. Economy ( Bernanke’s press confidence on April 2 ), the US economy will get caught in further downdraft. The USD would still have difficulty in gianing against the other majors. The Fed might not have done enough yet. We keep our eyes open onto the markets, though we had a week where a lot of important data was released.

On schedule, we have interest rate decisions from both the BoE and the ECB. We can not afford to miss any eeconomic events as long as we experience a turmoil in the markets . Alright! Let’s review them all.

On Monday ( Apr 7th ) we have the following events to watch:

    * In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -2.7B ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
    * In Japan, Leading Index ( Previous 36.4% ) is released at 05:00 GMT.
    * In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 2.5% ) is an event to follow.
    * In Germany, Industrial Production ( Previous 1.8% ) is a notable event to watch.
    * In Canada, Building Permits ( Previous -2.9% ) is released at 12:30 GMT.
    * In the US, Consumer Credit ( Previous 6.9B ) is an event to monitor.

On Tuesday ( Apr 8th ) we have the following events to watch:

    * In Australia, NAB Business Confidence ( Previous -2 ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT. Be aware USD/AUD traders.
    * In Canada, Housing Starts ( Previous 257K ) is an event to watch.
    * In the US, Pending Home Sales ( Previous 0.0% ) and FOMC Meeting Minutes are remarkable events to monitor. We should keep our eyes open on how the Fed considers the recent economic situation.
    * In the UK, Consumer Confidence ( Previous 78 ) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Wednesday ( Apr 9th ) we have the following events to watch:

    * In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -1.9B ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
    * In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision ( Previous 0.50% ) and the BoJ Monthly report are notable events to follow. We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the appreciated JPY against the USD.
    * In Germany, Trade Balance ( Previous 17.B ) is an important event to watch.
    * In the UK, Industrial Production ( Previous -0.1% ), RBC Shop Price Index ( Previous 1.3%) and NIESR GDP ( Previous 0.5% ) are notable events to monitor.

On Thursday ( Apr 10th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

    * In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.0% ) is released at 01:30 GMT.
    * In the UK, Trade Balance ( Previous -7.5B ) is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
    * In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement ( Current 5.25% , at 11:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 4.00%, at 11:45 GMT ) are released in sequence.
    * The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the recent value of the EUR.
    * In Canada, Trade Balance ( Previous 3.3B ) is released at 12:30 GMT.
    * In the US, Trade Balance ( Previous 58.2B ) is a notable event to follow.

On Friday ( Apr 11th ) we have the following events to watch:

    * In Canada, New Housing Price Index ( Previous 0.6% ) is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
    * In the US, Import Price Index ( Previous 0.2% ) and Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 69.) are remarkable events to watch.
    * There are no further significant events on Friday.

Economic Calendar for week 31st March - 4th April 2008

PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT

Monday Mar 31st:

EU - 08:00 - M3 Money Supply Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - Index of Services Q/Q.
EU - 09:00 - CPI Y/Y.
EU - 09:00 - Consumer Confidence.
UK - 09:30 - BOE Governor King Speaks.
US - 13:45 - Chicago PMI.
US - 14:00 - Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks.

Tuesday April 1st:

GE - 06:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
GE - 07:55 - Unemployment Rate.
EU - 08:00 - Manufacturing PMI.
UK - 08:30 - Manufacturing PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Unemployment Rate.
US - 14:00 - ISM Manufacturing Index.
US - 14:00 - ISM Manufacturing Prices.
US - 14:00 - Construction Spending M/M.

Wednesday April 2nd:

UK - 08:30 - BSA Mortgage Approvals.
UK - 08:30 - Construction PMI.
UK - 08:30 - Housing Equity Withdrawal Q/Q.
UK - 08:30 - Mortgage Approvals.
UK - 08:30 - Net Lending to Individuals M/M.
EU - 09:00 - PPI M/M.
US - 12:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.
US - 13:30 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
US - 14:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
US - 14:30 - Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday April 3rd:

EU - 08:00 - Services PMI.
UK - 08:30 - Services PMI.
UK - 08:30 - Credit Conditions Survey.
EU - 09:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
EU - 10:30 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 14:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite.
US - 14:00 - Bear Stearns Hearing.
US - 14:00 - Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks.

Friday April 4th:

FR - 06:45 - Government Budget Balance.
GE - 10:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
US - 12:30 - Nonfarm Payroll Change.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Rate.
US - 12:30 - Average Hourly Earnings M/M.
US - 12:45 - Cleveland Fed President Pianalto Speaks.
US - 18:45 - Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks.

EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany

The week ahead.

High yield spreads remain stubbornly high despite dramatic interventions from UK and US central banks. Banks are hording cash due to mistrust and fear over who will make the next big write down. Nationwide, the UKs largest building society, put up the rates on some mortgages despite there being a reasonable probability of a rate cut on the 10th of April.

So after the Easter recovery, it looks as though its business as usual for the credit crunch. Oil and metals were in demand again as traders reverted back to the buy commodities, sell the dollar tactic that has worked so well over the last 12 months. Consequently, the Dollar sold off heavily against the Euro, as speculation mounted that the Fed is not yet done with cutting rates. Cable was not as lucky, mainly due to speculations that the BOE will be cutting rates at their next meeting.

UK financial companies will be listening to BOE governor Kings speech today, for any clues of further direct intervention in the mortgage securities market. They will certainly need it is as credit markets start to freeze over again. We havent seen volatility in equities like this for half a decade, and the bad news is that were still some way off the frantic action we saw at the height of the dot com bubble. There could be some more explosive action this coming week, with some top tier economic announcements due.

Tuesday brings a raft of manufacturing data, with UK manufacturing PMI in the morning, and US ISM manufacturing index in the afternoon. Midday on Wednesday will be a turbulent time for European traders, with the release of US ADP Non-farm Employment Change, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaking. Friday tops the bill with the release of Non-farm payroll change and US employment rates.

A long, ugly, deep recession. was how Chryslers chief financial officer Jerry York described his outlook for Americas economy at a recent gathering of fellow finance executives. A recent poll of financial officers indicates that this isnt an isolated viewpoint. In America, economists with a pessimistic outlook outnumber the positive by a 9-1 margin, while in Europe the margin is 6-1. (via invivoanalytics.com)

After the Easter correction it seems the Dollar collapse is back on track, and Marchs high of 1.5904 in the EUR/ USD exchange rate could well be breached again this week. A one touch trade predicting that the EUR/ USD will touch 1.5855 at any time during the next 16 days could yield 12%.

David Evans