Mei 06, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))
14:50 GBP/USD down (Sell)
19:00 GBP/USD up (buy)
ALWAYS put a Stop Loss (SL) MAX 40 pips, and Target Profit (TP) starting from 10 to 70 pips, you can use a trailing stop too.
USE AT YOUR OWN RISK !
Tuesday May 6, 2008
EUR-USD
Currently uptrend should end around 1.5516 - 1.5536 area. A correction down to below 1.5440 is expected. A rise above 1.5575 will abort the expected correction.
GBP-USD
One more dip to 1.9656 is likely followed by a grind higher to above 1.9753. After which it can resume his downtrend.
USD-JPY
There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 105.40 or even 105.95. Supports at 104.80 and 104.52 zone.
USD-CHF
There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 1.0567 or even 1.0585. Supports at 1.0524 and 1.0499 zone.
March’s ISM figure showed a modest increase to 48.6 from 48.3 in February. The rise was mainly driven by increases in supplier deliveries and employment. The new orders index dropped to its lowest level since 2001.
In April, all the regional surveys, except Philly, showed increases in the inventories, and all regions, except Kansas, showed decreases in employment. In summary, Kansas has shown a large increase, whereas Philly and Richmond have shown signs of weakness, compared to last month. The local indices signal an increase in the ISM to 49.8. But as we have mentioned before, the local surveys often tend to lag the national ISM. Today, we expect an ISM reading of 47.5, which is below the consensus forecast of 48.0, but hig
her than our onemonth model’s forecast. When looking three months ahead, we expect that the ISM will decline to a level around 45 due to weak demand from the consumers and businesses. However, during the autumn, we expect that the positive effect from the tax rebate will begin to feed into the industry.
Australia 1Q House Prices Rise 1.1% Vs 4Q Vs Forecast +0.3%
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)–The weighted average price of established houses in Australian capital cities rose 1.1% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter 2007, the Australia Bureau of Statistics said Monday.
Economists had forecast a rise of 0.3%, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires.
The bureau’s house price index also showed the weighted average price of established houses in Australia’s eight capital cities was up 13.8% from the year-earlier quarter of 2007.
The house price index for Sydney fell 1.5% in the first quarter, and rose 7.1% from a year earlier.
Melbourne city had the largest quarterly increase, of 4.1%.
-By Sydney bureau; 61-2-8235-2950; djnews.sydney@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 04, 2008 21:31 ET (01:31 GMT)
US & Canada
Europe
Asia-Pacific
The NFP came out much better than expected on Friday, ( May 2nd : Actual -20 vs Forecast -78 ). We have seen the appreciation of the USD. The EUR/USD has moved down to the 1.5400 region, while the USD/JPY has moved up to the 105.00 region. Will we keep seeing theUSD recover with confidence or are we half- believed in what we have seen?
This week has several explosive events. On schedule , we have Gearman factory orders, the central banks’ interest rate decisions and trade balances. It is worth noting that the Tokyo session is closed on May 5th due to a Bank Holiday ( Children’s Day ). Alright! Let’s review them all.
There is no signigicat event on Sunday.
In Australia, House Price Index ( Previous 3.2% ) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Price Index ( Previous 2.0% ) is released at 02:00 GMT. There are no further significant events on Monday.
In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -3.29% ) is released at 01:30 GMT. Also, the RBA Intersest Rate Announcement ( Current 7.25% ) is scheduled at 04:30 GMT. Be aware AUD/USD traders.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index ( Previous -0.3 % ) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.6% ) is an important event to watch.
In Canada, Building Permits ( Previous -1.0% ) and Ivey PMI ( Previous 59.0 ) are events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the UK, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 77 ) is scheduled at 23:01 GMT.
In the UK, Industrial Production ( Previous 0.3% ), Manufacturing Production ( Previous 0.4% ), and BRC Shop Price Index ( Previous 1.1% ) are notable events to watch. Also, NIESR GDP Estimate ( Previous 0.5% ) is an event to follow.This report that comes out a month before the official announce is highly reliable and can influence the UK monetary policy.
In the Euro-Zone, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.5 % ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Factory Orders ( Previous -0.5% ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, Pending Home Sales ( Previous -1.9 % ) and Consumer Credit ( Previous 5.2B ) are events to monitor.
In New Zealand, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 3.4% ) is a notable event to watch. Be aware USD/NZD traders.
In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.1% ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 2.5% ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Trade Balance ( Previous 16.9B ) and Industrial Production ( Previous 0.4% ) are notable events to monitor.
In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement ( Current 5.00% , at 11:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 4.00%, at 11:45 GMT ) are released in sequence. The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the recent value of the EUR and inflationary pressure in the Eurozone.
In the US, Unemployment Claims is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Statement is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Japan, Leading Index ( Previous 54.5% ) is released at 05:00 GMT.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 6.0% ) and Trade Balance ( Previous 4.9B ) are remarkable events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, Trade Balance ( Previous -62.3B ) is a notable event to watch.
Thursday May 1, 2008
EUR-USD
It should trade higher to 1.5672 or above 1.5721 in extention. Supports at 1.557 and 1.5594. Stop loss below 1.5545 zone
GBP-USD
It may attempt a test higher to 1.9881 - 1.9966 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.9696 limit.
USD-JPY
it looks more likely that it would rise to above 104.4 or 104.64 from 103.81 or 103.45. After which a downside move to below 102.97 is expected.
USD-CHF
It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.0416 from 1.0337 or 1.0302. After which a downside move is expected.
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The +38k jump to 407k in weekly jobless claims was the worst reading since Sept. 17, 2005 (week following Hurricane Katrina). The less volatile 4-week MA jumped 15.8K to 374.5K, highest since Oct. 2005. Continued claims rose to 2.937 mln, highest since July 17, 2004. The Labor Department did note seasonal difficulties arising from the Easter Holiday . The 400K handle may be revised down to the 390sKin the following week, but the climb remains consistent with recessions than the 360-70s seen earlier.
The report leaves little doubt to whether the US economy is in a recession, and supports our expectations for interest rates to reach 1.0% before year-end. 50 bps in April will take fed funds to 1.75% later this month, leaving 75 bps for the rest of the year is a highly plausible occurrence.
Today’s report confirms what we said two weeks ago about markets’ false sense of optimism/comfort arising from the lack of “systemic risk” news, ignoring the macroeconomic realities of the financial crisis which are here to stay and spreading.
Revisiting last week’s strategy piece (Mar 25) about the S&P 500 inability to rise more than 3% above its 50-day moving average, the validity of this pattern may not augur well for the index. The chart below shows that since having reached its record high in October 2007, the S&P500 has had 34cases of failed rebounds. Today’s jobless claims report is the fundamental catalyst for the S&P500’s failure to regain the 1,380 resistance and find the 1,260 low.
We stated that in order for the index to break this pattern on the upside, it would have close above 1,380-5 level. On Tuesday, the high reached 1,377, still not good enough. The 1,382 level also marks a key trend line resistance, which acts as a pressure point since February 4. Once having failed to breach above 1,380-5, we expect to see a renewed pullback in the S&P500 towards the 1,300, before extending losses to the 1,257 lows.
Friday’s payrolls report may act as a key catalyst, fuelling the possibility of breaching above the 1,380s in the event of a stronger than expected showing. A weak reading will intensify the selloff in equities in light of the recent failure in the index.
CURRENCY IMPLICATIONS: Considering the persistently strong correlation between risk appetite and the yen–with the currency used to purchase risk (equities, gold and oil) –renewed losses in stocks will refuel the yen and the Swiss franc after these two currencies have suffered from the recent bounce in stocks. The implications for USDJPY are illustrated in the chart below.
Just as we write that that the USDJPY implications from the S&P’s failure are negative, the US jobless claims deliver. Similarly, the implications for USDJPY in the event of this equity failure are for renewed losses towards 102.30, followed by 101.80. Upside remains capped at 102.80.
EURUSD soars from $1.5520s to 1.5580s on the US jobless claims, which confirm that recession is here and interest rates will likely reach 1.0% before year-end. 50 bps in April will take fed funds to 1.75%, leaving 75 bps for the rest of the year is a highly plausible occurrence. EURUSD resistance stands at 1.56020, followed by 1.5650.
The jobless claims figure was alleviates the Euro from the previous selloff, which took place following weak services data. Eurozone retail sales fell 0.5% in February for an annual decline of 0.2%, following an increase of 0.5% and 0.2% m/m and y/y in the prior month. Markets had expected sales to rise by 0.2%. It was the biggest monthly rise in 3 months.
Eurozone services PMI fell to 51.6 in March from February’s 52.3, nearly matching consensus forecasts of 51.7. The price index hit the highest in 9 months. Germany ’s services PMI fell to 51.8, while Italy ’s edged up to 48.8 from 47.2. France ’s index slipped to 57.3 from February’s 58.2, while Spain ’s index tumbled to 40.9 from 46.1, the biggest decline of the series since it was created in 1999.
Despite today’s US weekly claims, we retain our broadly negative assessment for GBP, as we expect next week’s anticipated BoE rate cut to open the door for 3 more rate cuts of 25-bp moves. Separately, UK services PMI hit a 6-momth low when it fell to 52.1 in March from 54.0 in February, undershooting expectations of a smaller decline to 53.3. The input prices index rose to a record high 66.2 from 65.6.
We expect interim upside to reach $1.9865-70, followed by $1.9920. Friday’s payrolls may even call up 1.9990, at which point it will serve as a selling point for the pair ahead of BoE easing. Support climbs to 1.9760 and 1.9810.
Best
Hometrack: UK House Price Growth Slows To 2-Year Low In March
LONDON (Dow Jones)–U.K. house prices fell for the sixth consecutive month in March, with the annual rate of growth slowing to its weakest level in two years, and are likely to remain under pressure in the months ahead, Hometrack said Monday.
The housing research and valuation company said house prices fell 0.2% in March and were 0.4% higher on the year, the weakest 12-month change since March 2006. In February, prices also fell 0.2% on the month and were 1.4% stronger on the year.
Hometrack said there was a 1.2% increase in the number of buyers registering with housing agents in March. New buyer registrations rose 7.9% in February, the first rise in the measure since June 2007.
There was also an 8% increase in sales agreed in March, after a 20% rise in February, and the average time to sell a property was stable at 8.5 weeks, it said.
But, Hometrack Director of Research Richard Donnell said some bounce in market activity was inevitable after the recent period of weakness, and growth in demand over the last two months was only a third of the level reported in previous years.
"Indeed, the likelihood of any sustained increase in demand over the spring period is very limited," he said in a statement.
"Continued uncertainty in the financial markets, affordability pressures and weak buyer confidence are all likely to suppress levels of market activity in the months ahead with pricing levels remaining under pressure," Donnell said.
Hometrack continued to forecast a 17% drop in transaction volumes this year, with buying being driven by those who have to move for job or financial reasons and by those who have small mortgages and view the current market slowdown as an opportunity to purchase.
The U.K. housing market began to slow in the latter half of last year after the BOE raised its main interest rate 125 basis points between August 2006 and July 2007 in an effort to slow inflation, and after the global credit crisis began to affect the mortgage market.
The BOE has since lowered rates 50 basis points to 5.25% as it tries to balance the impact on inflation from an expected economic slowdown and higher fuel and commodity prices. Economists expect the BOE to deliver at least another two 25-basis-point cuts this year.
The following table compares house price surveys by major U.K. housing institutions.
March February On Mo On Yr On Mo On Yr Nationwide -0.6% +1.1% -0.5% +2.7% Halifax N/A N/A -0.3 +4.2% Rightmove +0.8% +5.0% +3.2% +5.8% Hometrack -0.2 +0.4 -0.2% +1.4%-By Nicholas Winning, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 20 7842 9254; nick.winning@dowjones.com
