GBP/USD ANALISYS

February 14, 2008

GBP/USD - 1.9623…Although cable fell to 1.9550 in European opening,
price then rallied to 1.9656 after the BOE inflation report reduced speculation
of aggressive rate cuts by the MPC later this yr (due to concerns that inflation
will exceed the central bank’s target), however, stronger-than-expected U.S.
retail sales data pushed sterling to 1.9590/95 b4 the British pound rose again
to 1.9666 in late N.Y. afternoon on carry trade demand.

Cable’s erratic rise fm 1.9388 (Feb 7 low) is retracing the decline fm
1.9960 n abv o/n high at 1.9666 wud extend marginal gain to 1.9680/90 but the
bearish divergences on hourly oscillators shud cap price well below 1.9741
(confluence of 61.8% r of 1.9960-1.9388 n equality proj. of 1.9444-1.9635 fm
1.9550) n yield retreat later (readers can venture selling on next upmove as
per our weekly outlook).

Below 1.9550/55 (y’day’s low n 50% r of 1.944-1.9666) wud signal temp.
top has been formed n bring correction to 1.9494 (61.8% r of 1.9388-1.9666) but
only break of 1.9444 wud signal aforesaid rise fm 1.9388 has ended…

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